Sunday, January 21, 2024

San Francisco's Federal Reserve CEO "Cautiously Optimistic" on Economy. I'm Very Optimistic on Her!


My schedule didn’t allow me to travel to Davos last week; however, on Friday I attended San Diego’s Economic Forum which featured Mary Daly, President and CEO, San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank. Listening to her voice of reason gives me hope for our government officials. She was fantastic – if you ever have the chance to meet her, take it. Here are my takeaways:

·         Based on current data, she is cautiously optimistic about the economy.

·         The dual mandate objectives of the Fed are in balance.

·         Her work at the Fed is guided by three principles:

o   “The economy is about people.”  You need to talk to people.

o   “The data are plural – like a pointillistic painting.”

o   “Every voice, every lens, every perspective matters.”

·         What’s your process for making policy decisions?

o   “I’m curious.”

o   “I’m confident”

o   Be humble and go back to step one.

·      The potential threat/risk to the economy this year from the commercial real estate reckoning is primarily class B office space.

·         “Public trust is our most important tool.”

Full disclosure, I’m a fan (and have been a fan) of Fed Chair Jay Powell. It’s gratifying to know he’s not the only voice of reason at the Fed and that she is also optimistic about the San Francisco Bay / Oakland Area's future.